It’s already been 10 weeks since our first session, and today would be the last proper lesson before we begin on the much dreaded group presentations. The session’s topic would be on technology forecasting, which wasn’t really an exciting topic if you compared it to last week’s, which was on emerging technologies.
“… those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future”. We may be very comfortable with our current situations and do not see the need to change, but if we do not look towards the future, we would ultimately get left behind. Things are constantly changing around us, mostly for the better. We need to forecast the future, so that we have a goal to work towards to. Without forecasting, we would merely be working blindly with no target in mind, and would often stray away to other less important things. When computers were first invented, it was so huge and complicated that people scoffed at the idea that one day, every household would own a personal computer. Back in those days it definitely seemed like a ridiculous idea, but imagine how different our lives would be today if it was not forecasted that computers would be a part of everyone’s lives, and the idea of developing personal computers was scrapped.
Prof discussed some of the more commonly used foresight methodologies, of which a few were emphasized. Firstly, the concept of backcasting whereby we look into the future, and figure out ways we can achieve these goals by working backwards and creating a path. Using gaming is another interesting one, whereby certain situations are simulated in order to create a perspective of the future. Next by using the SWOT analysis and observing each component, which are the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
It was my turn for the individual presentation this week and I presented on the 6 rules for effective forecasting by Paul Saffo. Hopefully I did alright with my presentation and everyone understood what I was trying to say. I would rate this lesson an 8/10, although it’s not the most exciting topic to discuss, it is nonetheless an important one, and a very appropriate topic to end the module. I have definitely learnt a lot these past 10 weeks and I definitely hope I can apply this new knowledge in the future. Unfortunately presentations and deadlines are what awaits me in the near future,
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