Technology Assessment and Forecasting

It’s already been 10 weeks since our first session, and today would be the last proper lesson before we begin on the much dreaded group presentations. The session’s topic would be on technology forecasting, which wasn’t really an exciting topic if you compared it to last week’s, which was on emerging technologies.

“… those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future”. We may be very comfortable with our current situations and do not see the need to change, but if we do not look towards the future, we would ultimately get left behind. Things are constantly changing around us, mostly for the better. We need to forecast the future, so that we have a goal to work towards to. Without forecasting, we would merely be working blindly with no target in mind, and would often stray away to other less important things. When computers were first invented, it was so huge and complicated that people scoffed at the idea that one day, every household would own a personal computer. Back in those days it definitely seemed like a ridiculous idea, but imagine how different our lives would be today if it was not forecasted that computers would be a part of everyone’s lives, and the idea of developing personal computers was scrapped.

Prof discussed some of the more commonly used foresight methodologies, of which a few were emphasized. Firstly, the concept of backcasting whereby we look into the future, and figure out ways we can achieve these goals by working backwards and creating a path. Using gaming is another interesting one, whereby certain situations are simulated in order to create a perspective of the future. Next by using the SWOT analysis and observing each component, which are the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

It was my turn for the individual presentation this week and I presented on the 6 rules for effective forecasting by Paul Saffo. Hopefully I did alright with my presentation and everyone understood what I was trying to say. I would rate this lesson an 8/10, although it’s not the most exciting topic to discuss, it is nonetheless an important one, and a very appropriate topic to end the module. I have definitely learnt a lot these past 10 weeks and I definitely hope I can apply this new knowledge in the future. Unfortunately presentations and deadlines are what awaits me in the near future,

Emerging and Future Technologies

The possibilities of future technologies are really endless. “If you can imagine it, you can make it happen” was the bottomline of the lesson. Often, when we watch a movie based on the future, we would laugh at how ridiculous some of the technologies are. They may seem unrealistic to us now, but with years of research, who is to say they won’t become a reality in future.

What I found really interesting was the concept of augmented reality, which enhances our current perception of reality. Now, when we walk in malls, all we see are rows and rows of shops. If we wanted to find out more about a shop, we would have to physically walk into it and speak to a sales assistant. In future, we can get all the information we need and more by simply snapping a photo of the shop with our camera smartphones, and every single detail would be displayed on the palms of our hands. Augmented reality is a fast developing technology and there are currently applications for our smartphones which can do some basic stuff, such as translations of different languages. Researchers are even thinking of combining such technology with our spectacles or even contact lenses, but I feel this is still far off into the future. This is one future technology I am really looking forward to as I feel this would be one of the revolutionary changes that will completely alter the way we view things around us.

One of the most talked about topic of the past few weeks is the release of the iPhone 4S and Siri. The latest iPhone 4S boasts a new concept of a built in personal assistant which can actually communicate with us. Siri is currently quite new, and is now only able to perform very basic functions, such as perform searches, add reminders and answer certain questions. It is still in development, and is one to look out for. The possibilities are endless, and in future we may even have full conversations with our smart phones. However, one of the possible downsides of such technologies is whether they would reduce the number of human interactions we have in future. If artificial intelligence becomes more human like, this may reduce the need for human to human interactions. For example, if we had a burning question, we could simply ask our smartphones for the answer, rather than ask an actual human being, who may not even have the answer to our questions.

Therefore, even if the future looks exciting, we must remember to maintain a balance, and not rely too heavily on technology. I would rate the lesson a 9/10, as the topic was really interesting. Unfortunately, there is too much that could have been covered but too little time to do so.

Energy and World Change

This week, we talked about a topic that is very relevant to us, energy. Energy comes in many forms, from coal, oil and gas, which come from underground sources to wind, solar and biomass, which come from sources above the ground. These energy sources are classified as renewable and non-renewable, and as with other non-renewable resources discussed in previous lessons, we are fast running out of these resources. Therefore, we have to look towards switching to renewable energy sources in the near future in order to achieve sustainability.

One renewable energy source discussed in the lesson was solar energy. Basically, solar energy comes from the sun, and solar energy produces way more energy than other sources such as oil or wind. Solar provides 3,850,000 EJ of energy every year and the sun provides more energy to the Earth in one hour than the entire global population consumes in an entire year. However, we are still unable to fully capture this energy and utilize it. Germany currently has policies in place to encourage its people to install solar panels on the roofs of their houses and utilize solar energy. In order to encourage the people to do so, they have offered to buy this energy produced from the solar panels of the people for 50 cents per kw, and selling it back to them at a lower price of around 20 cents per kw. Although the initial costs of these solar panels may be high, in the long run, these people would be able to make a profit. Thus the Germans have all begun installing solar panels wherever possible. This includes large open spaces such as open fields, which could have been used for other purposes, such as farmland for crops. Instead, more Germans are now beginning to invest in ‘energy farming’. Prof asked if this would be feasible in Singapore, where the government puts in place similar policies to encourage people to start installing solar panels on their roofs. Personally I feel that the lack of land in Singapore may be a factor, and the amount of energy that can be harvested from solar energy may not be significant due to the lack of space to install solar panels. Also, most people live in high rise apartments and residents may not be able to stand to gain as much as these “profits” have to be split among many families in a single building. However, we should still work towards converting to renewable energy sources.

Another point that was brought up was that nations such as Dubai, which rely heavily on oil for their economy, are looking towards other sources to generate income for the economy. Having recently done an Leadership and Teambuilding (LTB) project on Sheikh Mohammed, I read that Dubai would run out of oil as soon as in 5 years time, which is a really short period of time. Hence, Sheikh Mohammed has focused on other industries to boost the economy, such as building more infrastructures such as the worlds most luxurious hotel, tallest building as well as the largest shopping mall in the world, in order to boost tourism in the country. Hence it can be seen that we can no longer rely on non-renewable resources like oil and have to look towards renewable sources in order to achieve sustainability.

The question of whether the world would be able to achieve 100% reliance on renewable resources for energy. I feel this may be possible, but it depends on how fast technology in capturing solar energy advances. If we are able to utilize even 20% of the sun’s energy, we would be able to possibly achieve this aim. However, presently Germany is only able to achieve about 20% reliance on renewable energy sources, and if I’m not wrong, is one of if not the highest in the world. However, not only the larger nations need to work towards making the switch to solar energy, but the smaller nations have to play their part too, even if the energy they use is much lesser, but nevertheless, still significant.

I would rate this lesson an 8.5/10, as it is very relevant to the world currently. However, we were unable to cover everything and go more in depth into the topic due to the lack of time in just 1 lesson. Hopefully, one day the world will be able to run completely on renewable sources of energy.

BioBusiness Revolution 2: Agriculture and the Environment: Past, Present, Future

This week’s lesson was a sequel to last week’s, which was on the biobusiness revolution. While last week’s lesson focused on the medical and healthcare industry, this week’s focused on agricultural biotechnology. Prof started the lesson with a quote of his own: “When we are able to grow the resources we need, we will finally be on the road to sustainability”.

This is true in the sense that if we are able to constantly produce energy sources such as fuel and oil, we would no longer have to worry about what happens after we run out of these natural resources. However, in order for it to be truly sustainable, we have to ensure that we are able to grow the resources faster than we consume them. As mentioned in one of the earlier lessons, if everyone consumed at US’s rates, we would need 3-5 earths to support the entire world’s population. Not forgetting the rapidly increasing population. With the advancement of technology in the healthcare and medical sectors, the average life expectancy rate has increased, and the infant mortality rate has decreased. It is estimated that the world’s population would increase to about 10 billion people, from 7 billion as of today. With an increase in the number of people in the world, consumption rates would also increase, and limited resources get depleted at an even faster rate. Hence, although being able to grow the resources we need would allow us to achieve sustainability, I feel that it is more important to control our consumption, as well as find alternative resources in order to ultimately achieve sustainability.

Another point to note is whether we can effectively distribute these resources to all parts of the world, not just the wealthier and more advanced nations. Similarly to food, there is more than enough to satisfy the hungers of the entire world’s population, yet there are still many people in the poorer regions such as Africa who do not have enough to eat. In a way we do have enough resources, just that it is not distributed evenly among everyone. We look at those without sufficient resources and conclude that the world does not have enough when in actual fact we may actually have, just that it not properly and efficiently utilized. Hence, one of the solutions to this problem is to find ways to grow things faster, or produce more within a shorter period of time, which brings us to the topic of genetically modified foods.

GM foods came about in order to solve the problem of food shortage. For example, crops such as BT corn, golden rice and GM salmon have resulted in better and faster yields, and more nutritious food. However, some have labeled these as ‘Frankenfoods’ and many ethical and social issues have come up. There are concerns whether these GM food are safe for consumption and whether it poses a danger to animal, plant life and the environment, as these processes involve recombining plant and animal genes. Although it has been declared many times that there are presently no danger in consuming these GM foods, many are still protesting. In my opinion, I feel that people should learn to trust technology and the ones who are protesting are probably the ones who do not go to bed hungry. There are other issues with GM food, such as patenting and intellectual property rights.

As with the medical and healthcare biotechnology industry, patents and the protection of intellectual properties in the agriculture business have prevented poor farmers from using such technologies. Although farmers may be interested in employing these technologies in order to increase yield, they cannot do so as they cannot afford to economically. Unless big corporations are able to look at the bigger picture and not be only concerned with their selfish wants, the agricultural and biotechnology sector will not be able to advance as quickly as it could have been.

This week’s lesson has been very interesting and relevant to me and I would rate it an 8/10. Hopefully one day technological advances would allow food resources to be distributed equally to the poorer nations and that no one would ever have to go to bed hungry.

BioBusiness Revolution - Helathcare and Biomedical Sciences (Past Present and Future)

“A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in”.

This Greek proverb tells us that people have to constantly think and innovate for future generations and not just think about our present situation in order to succeed as a society. As with the biobusiness industry, specifically the medical and healthcare industry, we have to constantly come up with methods of preventing diseases instead or solely focusing on finding cures in order to prevent future generations from contracting them.

Now for some numbers. The BioBusiness industry accounts for more than a quarter of the world’s GDP and employs about 40% of the world’s labour force. This shows that a lot of focus and emphasis is placed on the BioBusiness industry and this includes the biomedical, agri-veterinary, environmental and industrial industries. This lesson focused on the biomedical and healthcare industry, which is unsurprising as it makes up the majority of the BioBusiness industry. However, an interesting statistic to note is that the USA spends a higher proportion on healthcare compared to agriculture or the food sector, while the Asian countries spend a relatively lower proportion on healthcare, whereby agriculture makes up the majority.

We also looked at the trends of the global leading cause of death. In the past (around 1990), lower respiratory infections was the leading cause of death. Presently, heart diseases are now leading, with the percentage of deaths caused by respiratory infections falling. This is a sign that the biomedical industry has successfully discovered sufficient cures and preventions over the past decade. The increase in cases of heart diseases is also reflective that people are beginning to become more obese and not watching their diets. There is a very simple prevention for this which is self control, but the convenience and availability of junk foods are slowly turning societies into fast food nations. Another interesting point to note is that deaths caused by road traffic accidents and war have been on the rise in the past decade. These are hardly causes that can be prevented by the bio business industry so it’s also a sign that either the biomedical industry has been successful in coming up with cures for other diseases, or that there have been more wars and drivers have become more reckless in the past decade.

The issue of immortality was again brought up in one of the individual presentations. The question of whether should ‘eternal youth’ be available to a small proportion of society, if we would want to have it. Personally, I feel that I would like to live longer, but not forever. There’s only so much we can do in life, and once we have done everything on our bucket list, it would be pretty pointless to go on living with no purpose. Someone suggested that we could redo everything, but I feel I would get bored quite quickly.

Gene testing was also brought up. It is the process whereby we would be able to predict the exact probability of contracting some form of disease, or our exact time of death. I don’t think I would want to know when exactly I would die, as the stress I would have is likely to make me die earlier than expected. However on the other hand, it may give me an opportunity to plan what I want to do. Say for example, if I knew I was going to die in exactly 2 weeks time, I would be able to plan the things I want to do before I died. I would be able to die happy and without any regrets. So this thing about gene testing has both it’s pros and cons, and if it were to become a reality, I feel people should have the choice to choose whether they want to be aware of the results.

Overall, this was a pretty interesting lesson and I would rate it a 7/10.