Technology Assessment and Forecasting

It’s already been 10 weeks since our first session, and today would be the last proper lesson before we begin on the much dreaded group presentations. The session’s topic would be on technology forecasting, which wasn’t really an exciting topic if you compared it to last week’s, which was on emerging technologies.

“… those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future”. We may be very comfortable with our current situations and do not see the need to change, but if we do not look towards the future, we would ultimately get left behind. Things are constantly changing around us, mostly for the better. We need to forecast the future, so that we have a goal to work towards to. Without forecasting, we would merely be working blindly with no target in mind, and would often stray away to other less important things. When computers were first invented, it was so huge and complicated that people scoffed at the idea that one day, every household would own a personal computer. Back in those days it definitely seemed like a ridiculous idea, but imagine how different our lives would be today if it was not forecasted that computers would be a part of everyone’s lives, and the idea of developing personal computers was scrapped.

Prof discussed some of the more commonly used foresight methodologies, of which a few were emphasized. Firstly, the concept of backcasting whereby we look into the future, and figure out ways we can achieve these goals by working backwards and creating a path. Using gaming is another interesting one, whereby certain situations are simulated in order to create a perspective of the future. Next by using the SWOT analysis and observing each component, which are the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

It was my turn for the individual presentation this week and I presented on the 6 rules for effective forecasting by Paul Saffo. Hopefully I did alright with my presentation and everyone understood what I was trying to say. I would rate this lesson an 8/10, although it’s not the most exciting topic to discuss, it is nonetheless an important one, and a very appropriate topic to end the module. I have definitely learnt a lot these past 10 weeks and I definitely hope I can apply this new knowledge in the future. Unfortunately presentations and deadlines are what awaits me in the near future,

Emerging and Future Technologies

The possibilities of future technologies are really endless. “If you can imagine it, you can make it happen” was the bottomline of the lesson. Often, when we watch a movie based on the future, we would laugh at how ridiculous some of the technologies are. They may seem unrealistic to us now, but with years of research, who is to say they won’t become a reality in future.

What I found really interesting was the concept of augmented reality, which enhances our current perception of reality. Now, when we walk in malls, all we see are rows and rows of shops. If we wanted to find out more about a shop, we would have to physically walk into it and speak to a sales assistant. In future, we can get all the information we need and more by simply snapping a photo of the shop with our camera smartphones, and every single detail would be displayed on the palms of our hands. Augmented reality is a fast developing technology and there are currently applications for our smartphones which can do some basic stuff, such as translations of different languages. Researchers are even thinking of combining such technology with our spectacles or even contact lenses, but I feel this is still far off into the future. This is one future technology I am really looking forward to as I feel this would be one of the revolutionary changes that will completely alter the way we view things around us.

One of the most talked about topic of the past few weeks is the release of the iPhone 4S and Siri. The latest iPhone 4S boasts a new concept of a built in personal assistant which can actually communicate with us. Siri is currently quite new, and is now only able to perform very basic functions, such as perform searches, add reminders and answer certain questions. It is still in development, and is one to look out for. The possibilities are endless, and in future we may even have full conversations with our smart phones. However, one of the possible downsides of such technologies is whether they would reduce the number of human interactions we have in future. If artificial intelligence becomes more human like, this may reduce the need for human to human interactions. For example, if we had a burning question, we could simply ask our smartphones for the answer, rather than ask an actual human being, who may not even have the answer to our questions.

Therefore, even if the future looks exciting, we must remember to maintain a balance, and not rely too heavily on technology. I would rate the lesson a 9/10, as the topic was really interesting. Unfortunately, there is too much that could have been covered but too little time to do so.